PSU BANK Index

CNX PSU BANK

It looks good time to be long on PSU banks. Index is moving in a channel for almost 2 years. Index once again visited the bottom of the channel. It looks index formed a base there and ready to move up. Yesterday Index moved above 12 Dema and also closed above the trend line. PSU banks looks bullish for short term. Index may see 2791 levels.

Index breaking of this channel may not be good for PSU banks.

CNX FMCG

CNX FMCG

CNX FMCG is moving in a channel. Most of the times the index traded in higher part of the channel which shows the interest of the investors to hold to the stocks in this group. However it looks Index gave false breakdown(market with circle) once.

Index is now ready to give a breakout of the channel which promise that the FMCG is going to be strong going forward. However the daily technicals RSI, Stochastic looks started forming a negative divergence.
Price action promising more up move on index.

Nifty

Nifty

Earlier felt that Nifty is making a diamond pattern and from where it could be chappy and break down.
Nifty slowly inched up and made 78.6% retracement of the previous fall ( from 6229 to 5566).

This entire retracement happened in a channel with many gap ups/downs.

Unless and until Nifty moves below 6018, Nifty can move higher. However Stochastic shows some -ve divergence on daily charts while price is moving higher.Caution is advised for those who like to be long.


Frpm 5566 to current rally, if we take it as Elite B wave, then

a. From 5566 to 5904 = 338 points
b. From 5904 to 5760 = 144 points
c. From 5760 to 6093 = 333 points
(6098 could be possible).
Which looks like a=c almost.

Tomorrow could be trend deciding day whether nifty surpass these levels and extend its gains. Also move above 78.6% retracement of previous fall.

BankNifty

Earlier posted on Bank Nifty in my another blog with channel supports where Bank Nifty trying to move. Now it looks it almost nearing that level.Find my earlier post on Bank Nifty.

BankNifty may trade in a tight range until RBI news comes out on rate cut/ increase.

CNX PHARMA

CNX PHARMA

CNX PHARMA looks an outperformer in all indices in the month of July 2013 till now. Index is making
Hanging man
Hammer
Hammer at peak of its rally it seems. Stochastick shows Negative divergence. However RSI did not give any of such signs.

This last raise seems to be very fast and quick. Now it looks ready to end its rally and go for some correction. So be selective while you go long on Pharma stocks from now on.

I see that the index is forming CNX Nifty in its formation. If this is true, there could be some speedy down move in the index.

Nifty

Nifty

This week end, I found some interesting pattern formation in Nifty chart. May be it is a presumption, but I feel Nifty is making this formation. I sent this chart to few people where they said, we need to look for nifty moment in few days which may confirm with price action.

After two days of trading, it looks nifty is moving in the same pattern.This week could be a good day to give clear picture of how Nifty is going to move. If at all this is how Nifty is going to make moves in coming days, we may see very narrow range of trading in coming days with indecisive moves.

Here is todays chart with same view. I tried to look at the

If we look at the EW labeling for the current fall where it started at high point 6229.45.
It looks like the fall from 6229.45 is having 5 subwaves and the current upmove is just corrective rally with three waves.It looks nifty started moving down today. Tomorrows/this weeks action may confirm clearly how market is going to trend.

Few interesting points to note here are. If the wave count we are taking is correct then, the high made few days ago at 6038 is approximately 70.70% of previous fall from highs of 6229.45 to 5566.

While waves unfolding and price action represents we may get very clear picture on Nifty.

Bank Nifty

BankNifty

BankNifty is one of the major index that could influence the Nifty moment in Indian Stock market.
Bank Nifty is in an upword channel for almost one and half year. For almost a month index is trading just above 300 to 400 points above the support with more volatility. Suppose index breaking 11150 is channel breakdown and bearish to the index.

In one way index seems to be forming a bearish flag with pole size of approximately 2400 points. and Flag width of 779 points.Breaking of 11030 seems to be very bearish to the Bank Nifty with good targets.


Looking at the price moment and applying the EW labeling on daily candlesticks. The trend seems to be downward. The fall started at 13414.3 till 11033.75. Price retraced this fall and moved above 23.6%( 11595.6) but could not even touch the 38.2% retracement at 11943.12. Whenever there is a smaller retracements in wave moment, the next moment in trend going to be huge. If this downward moment is just started at 13414.3 then, there is going to be another huge down move awaiting.

Tomorrow there could be a small pull back rally till 11440 levels where one can initiate fresh shorts once again.

Good Luck !

Welcome Note

Hi Everyone,


Welcome to Indices Analysis. Very shortly you will see analysis of indices and stocks in those indices which could out perform.My apologies for kept you waiting for analysis on Induces. Keep patience for few days. Due to heavy schedules, Could not get time to post analysis on Nifty. Here I will discuss about the trading strategies as well. Sometime middle of the next week onwards, I will be back again with postings.

Thanks for bearing me. Happy Trading.

Anandha

Why this Blog is for

Hi Everyone,

Appreciate your overwelming response on my earlier blog named Trade with confidence in technical Analysis.
Your interest towards my analysis made me more responsible in analyzing the stocks and trying to put best trading opportunities for quite some time. Most of the times when I posted my charts, I used to take calls in Options & Futures in the direction of the price moment which mentioned in the charts.

I'd like to start writing about the indices which are more liquid and can have a systematic moves with an identified trends. I follow a systematic approach in analyzing the stocks.

1. I look at the indices like NIFTY,BANKNIFTY, CNX IT, CNX FINANCE, CNX PHARMA and CNX FMCG and will identify which index looks good to go long or short.

2.After identifying the trend of the index, I will dig into the stocks in those indices which will impact the current moves in the indices.
3. Filtering out few stocks from all these indices, stocks, we choose the one trading with good volumes and at support levels.

I also created my own indices giving weight-age to the stocks, which will let me know the set of stocks are moving higher or lower.

I'd like to post my analysis on Indices where we can go long or short for time to time. So that my blog followers can identify which sector stocks are going to push the market up or down and intern trade in those stocks to make good money.

Bear with me for sometime as schedule looks very tight for me nowadays.